When I backtested the macro score against forward stock returns, the 1-month result was near zero. Disappointing — until I tested longer horizons.
At 2–3 months, the correlation jumped meaningfully. Macro simply doesn't move markets in days; it plays out over months and quarters. Asking it to predict next week is asking for noise.
The honest lesson: a macro read is a slow, positioning-level signal, not a market-timing tool. It tells you which way the wind is blowing over the season, not the next gust.
Being upfront about that — showing the full horizon curve, not cherry-picking — is what makes a tool trustworthy.